High-Speed Railway PFV Prediction Model Research

Under Regional Economic Conditions

Abstract. Under the regional economic conditions, a passenger flow prediction model is proposed in the paper. It can predict high-speed railway passenger flow volume under the conditions of multi-mode, and guide the reasonable operation of high-speed railway effectively. According to the data analysis of Beijing and Tianjin railway stations, we can know that the reasonable ticket price plays an important role in high-speed railway operation benefit under regional economic conditions.

Keywords: passenger flow volume (PFV); regional economy; ticket price; multi-mode transportation

Introduction

The analysis of traditional prediction models indicates that the regional economy influences the behavior of passengers and the way of travel. Therefore, the regional economy is one of the important research contents in high-speed railway PFV prediction model.

In the past few years, there are many domestic and foreign experts and scholars who have done a lot of studies in the field. Some researchers from the viewpoint of the railway transport enterprise analyse the influence factors of the inter-city railway passenger flow, and set up a passenger flow prediction model with the Grey theory[1]. In addition, the mechanism of produce and influencing factors of passenger flow are analyzed in some traditional prediction models. The passenger flow is divided into passenger flow trend, induce the broker flow and transfer passenger flow, and each part of the passenger flow is predicted by different models[2,3]. Many people propose a new statistical analysis technique of railway passenger flow volume by the analysis of the data of selling ticket services[4]. But the regional economy is ignored in these prediction models, we will include the regional economy into the high-speed railway PFV prediction model.

In this article, firstly, we consider all the main influence factors of high-speed railway PFV under regional economic conditions. Secondly, the influence of the ticket price under the conditions of multi-mode is analyzed. Lastly, we propose a passenger prediction model base on the logit model.

Regional Economic Conditions

Under the regional economic conditions, the travel needs of passengers mainly influence by production and consumption, and the superior economic conditions provide the basis to people^’s travel[5]. So the people's travel needs in the economic developed area are bigger than underdeveloped areas. The travel need will increase with the development of economy.

Assume the population and other comprehensive factors of a city remain unchanged and the level of consumption of passengers with economic growth and improve. Therefore, under the conditions of regional economy, the passengers’ travel needs for high-speed railway can be expressed as:

PFV Under The Conditions Of Multi-Mode Transportation

The passengers choose the way of travel, under the conditions of multi-mode transportation, which is actually a probability problem[8]. The probability problem depends on the broad costs of the ways of travel.

We have known the distribution of the random entry , the probability of passengers choosing high-speed railway can be calculated. The probability can be understood as the problem of proportion under the conditions of multi-mode transportation, and it satisfies with the logit model[9].

Numerical Analysis

The data from the railway industry information report and statistical yearbook, and parameter values are calculated by statistical methods. There are three modes of transportation in Beijing to Tianjin. Table 1 shows their technical characteristic value, and we have worked out the estimated value of the three main characteristic weights : 3.00, 3.75 and 2.00.

Table 1: Different transportation modes technical characteristics value

Table 2: Comparison of actual and predicted PFV

By the statistics yearbook, we know that the consumption in Beijing equals 22154 (yuan per person) , and total number of passenger equal to 298.14×10⁹. Assume that the broad cost of other transportation modes remain unchanged, and the value of  equal to 2,1,19.60.

Under the conditions of regional economy, the ticket price is still one of the important influence factors of PFV. According to the example analysis of the model, we know that there is a kind of dynamic balance relationship between the passenger flow volume and ticket price.

练习

Fig 1: The relationship between ticket prices and passengers

Table 2 shows the margin of error between the actual and predicted PFV. The error rate is relatively small, therefore, the prediction model basic tally with the actual situation. In Fig.1, we can know that the reasonable ticket plays an important role in high-speed railway passenger flow volume. 

Conclusions

The high-speed railway passenger flow under the market economic conditions is analyzed in the paper. In the process of economic development, people^’s travel relied on production and consumption. Regardless of which one is based on the economic conditions. Therefore, based on the traditional prediction models, the paper includes the regional economic conditions into the prediction model. The prediction is feasible in practical application by the example analysis of the model.It can help the railway departments to establish the reasonable ticket price to increase passenger under regional economy.

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